THE DEMOGRAPHIC FATE OF intelligent SPECIES: One million immigrants are still not enough to turn Germany's demography around.

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

One million immigrants are still not enough to turn Germany's demography around.

If only more could sing the Internationale!
Welcoming a number of refugees like in 2015 and prime minister Merkel is now close to losing her seat. Yet that many may still, technically, not be enough to turn Germany's demography around. Can many more be realistically brought in under a democratic regime, where a big part of the already present population will use votes to defend their interests? And immigration would only delay the aging problem for a while, until the immigrants' children become locals, with local reproductive patterns. Or should Germany go the way of Japan where, instead of immigration, they are building robotic exo-skeletons to help 70-years-olds jogging around? Immigration could be a good idea for individual nations, yet it won't work on the planetary scale half a century from now, when the likes of Mexico, India... will have also aged. Unless we allow in some E.T. immigrants?


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While the record number of migrants entering the country will slightly increase the population, not even a million migrants will reverse Germany’s long-term population decline. Olga Poetzsch, a spokesperson for the Federal Statistics Office, said that a look at the past shows that phases of high net immigration to Germany are usually followed by sharp drops.
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The latest population projections still predict a long-term shrinkage, for two reasons, says Poetzsch. The large cohort of “baby boomers” (those born between 1955 and 1965, approximately) will start to die off, pushing annual deaths above one million. At the same time, the number of women of child-bearing age will decrease. Even if the birth rate jumped from 1.4 to 1.6 children per woman, overall births would still decline in the long term.

“Developments in fertility and mortality that might prevent such high numbers for the deficit of births are currently not in sight,” Poetzsch adds.
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